Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

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Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby kujo » Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:16 pm

Might as well start this thread now. I doubt India will do any better in Tokyo!!

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby kujo » Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:16 pm

A pre-mortem — also known as a premortem — is a managerial strategy in which a manager imagines that a project or organization has failed, and then works backward to determine what potentially could lead to the failure of the project or organization.

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby RohitG » Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:51 am

Now this is called vision, something that we lack in general. For starters, the usual suspects who CAN win medals won't be there in Tokyo. Boxers have vanished, wrestlers have become old and there is no change in guard, no tennis players (with LP already planning his 8th Olympics) Shooting and archery depend on luck and mental strength at that moment, something that we don't have and we can't invest in. I won't talk about hockey. Gymnastics is something I can't predict. Badminton will be the only hope. Other sports we'll be in the "also ran" category. Neither the government will do anything about it nor will anybody else. We'll have the same debates after that Olympics with likes of Piers Morgan and Shobhaa De trolling us (and we proving them right) on twitter.

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby jayakris » Thu Aug 25, 2016 6:02 am

In the prevailing doom and gloom, let me be the first to give the positive view in this Tokyo pre-mortem. I object to the title of the thread. It will be no disaster and India will win at least 6 medals next time. Cont on it. The momentum is there and things are better than they were 5 or 10 years ago. What happened in Rio was due to us going through an adjustment period. For a change, I think many people will have learned something from this Olympics. Why do I say that? I don't know. Just a hunch that I have. No, I am not turning into PKB and just being optimistic. I do feel a hunch that things have indeed started turning in the right direction, despite the medal count issue this time (and even the top-8 finishes being at least 5 less than I expected this time).

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby Prashant » Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:24 pm

Is "pre-mortem" one of those Indian English specialties like "prepone"??

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby jayakris » Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:29 pm

Prashant wrote:Is "pre-mortem" one of those Indian English specialties like "prepone"??

Nope. Here is the wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-mortem
Here is a Harvard Business Review article - https://hbr.org/2007/09/performing-a-project-premortem

It seems the word is less than a decade old, probably.

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby Prashant » Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:42 pm

I am skeptical of our chances in badminton at the next Olympics. Let me clarify: I am thrilled with the performance of both Sindhu & Srikanth at Rio. I think they will have excellent careers & win a lot in the next few years. But we have to take a probabilistic approach to an event four years from now, and there are too many variables. Fitness, competition, draws, emerging challengers, Japanese home field etc.

Sadly, I am also skeptical of Dipa Karmakar's chances. Again, kudos to her Rio performance & I expect a few really good years, but she will actually be old by women's gymnastics standards in Tokyo. And yes I am aware of the 41 year old lady, but one swallow does not a summer make.

Really think it is down to shooting and any new young emerging wrestlers/boxers.

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby arjun2761 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:57 pm

I believe that we are capable of winning 6+ medals in Tokyo.

Clearly, one of the lessons learned should be that money should be allocated for specific activities determined jointly by the athlete and his/her coach. The top 30-40 prospects should also be managed by professionally run sports agencies such as OGQ who can often supplement the knowledge of the coach and athlete in figuring out what needs to be done to deliver top level performance. Of course, these professional agents should also be onsite at the Olympics rather than federation officials (although this will never happen).

Agree that main sports focused on should be shooting, archery, wrestling, boxing, badminton, and women's weightlifting. Among team sports, the hockey teams are the best bets.

If we are in the process of identifying newer sports to compete in then cycling, rowing, canoe/kayak etc. offer the best medal prospects but it will likely take longer than 3-4 years to be medal contenders.

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby jaydeep » Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:59 pm

Yes Arjun, agree with you ... My guess is we will first time enter into double figure of medals in Tokyo.

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby kujo » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:37 pm

Thanks for the positive hopes for Tokyo expressed in this thread. I am also looking for things that might go wrong, which when fixed would result in a successful Olympics for India in Tokyo!!

A premortem is the hypothetical opposite of a postmortem. A postmortem in a medical setting allows health professionals and the family to learn what caused a patient’s death. Everyone benefits except, of course, the patient. A premortem in a business setting comes at the beginning of a project rather than the end, so that the project can be improved rather than autopsied.


admittedly, there are many things that can and will go wrong, but our hopes & hunches for more medals will never diminish!! :)


RohitG wrote:Now this is called vision, something that we lack in general.
:D

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby sameerph » Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:54 pm

Prashant wrote:I am skeptical of our chances in badminton at the next Olympics. Let me clarify: I am thrilled with the performance of both Sindhu & Srikanth at Rio. I think they will have excellent careers & win a lot in the next few years. But we have to take a probabilistic approach to an event four years from now, and there are too many variables. Fitness, competition, draws, emerging challengers, Japanese home field etc.


You are right about badminton probabilities, Prashant. That is why I said earlier that we should have 2 players in contention in both mens and womens singles for Tokyo. We had 2 in womens singles ( Saina and Sindhu) in contention for last 5 big events in badminton since London ( 2 Olympics and 3 world championships ) and we got a medal on each of the occasion. So, probability goes up drastically if we have 2 quality players. So, either Saina has to stay in top 10 in Tokyo or someone else comes along.

Similarly, Srikanth and Prannoy/Praneeth/Ajay or someone else to be in top 10 which will increase the probability there as well.

Another hope is with the new Taiwanse coach our doubles teams will get so good that we are in medal contention there too.

I am very much hopeful about badminton medal next time, even getting 2 is not ruled out.

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby jaydeep » Mon Sep 26, 2016 2:59 pm

Copying here on Suresh's suggestion. :)
With the euphoria of the felicitations for PV Sindhu and Sakshi Malik slowly receding into a somewhat distant memory, perhaps now is the time to start looking ahead to Olympics 2020 and even to 2024.

Recent columns in the print media and comments by anchors and their guests on TV channels blame every stake holder of Indian sport including government and federations. However, I wish to introduce the thought, that sport is a small subset of the numerous activities which we Indians partake in. And in all the numerous professions there are only a rare few individuals where we are truly world class. Or for that matter rare few products produced in india which are world class. The basic underlying and foundational essence of our existence revolves around mediocrity.

To produce a world class product ( and an athlete is finally a product) we need world class inputs and we need to be obsessed about quality in every aspect of an individual athletes preparation. We have the basic raw material or talent. But the entire environment needs to be world class to be able to produce an Olympic medal winning athlete.

We need small crack teams for each sport headed by a well paid CEO who is empowered to take quick decisions and decisions based on intelligence and research with respect to that particular sport. We need panels of world class doctors, injury managenent professionals, physiotherapists, nutritionists, coaches, equipment and efficient logistic support to back up these crack teams.

Governments and federations by their very nature ( and this is across the world ) are weighed down by size and inability to take quick decisions. Government - if it is really serious about results - can form these crack teams - one for each sport - which are driven by competent CEO's who are past athletes or good coaches or just great managers - they will need to be paid world class salaries and incentivised too. More importantly each crack team will need to be funded as per the budgeted requirements of that particular sport and its athletes.

Given the results at Rio, a logical conclusion is that perhaps more needs to be done. It is clear that we need to focus our attention into providing top class inputs into our athletes preparing for 2020 but equally important is to immediately roll out a junior programme. 400 juniors between the ages of 9-15 in each of the four or five sporting disciplines. Every year ruthless screening to be done purely on the basis of meritocracy and finally in 2024 we will be left with 10-20 athletes in each discipline of which at least two or three could be genuine medal hopefuls. This again can be given to separate crack teams again headed by competent well paid CEO's who need to report to a world class board with impeccable integrity.

Research that we have done at OGQ and indeed the example of the UK, has given us an indication and perhaps proof that it makes sense to focus on a few disciplines, in which we may have a cultural or past performance of note. Wrestling, shooting , archery , boxing , badminton come to mind. This does not mean we neglect unusual talent like a Dipa Karmakar in Gymnastics or a Maana Patel in swimming.

Collectively we completely neglect the athletes when they actually need the money and support ( four to eight years before their first Olympics) and then once they win, we go wild with excitement. We need to provide massive support to them eight years before they win the medal and after they win we can be more measured in giving them rewards.

So let's hope that in Tokyo we will have 6-8 medal winners and that we the public will follow Olympic sport not only for two weeks but for two years in the build up to Tokyo. We need to be a sporting nation everyday of our lives and not only during the Asian Games, Commonwealth Games and Olympics.

Geet Sethi

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby PKBasu » Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:27 pm

Shooting, Archery, Boxing, Wrestling (men's and women's), Rowing (1), Badminton, Tennis and Men's Hockey should be our focus.

In these sports, there needs to be an overarching authority that acts as Ombudsman to limit the ability of the Sports Association to do damage. Hockey will be in special need of this: someone needs to ensure that Oltman and/or another world-class coach stay in-charge for the Asiad and CWG, as well as the World Cup in between.
I include tennis because we have a large cohort of young women, 1-3 of whom should be ready to provide a serious partner to Sania at Tokyo.
Badminton also has a good talent pool on the men's side, and a proven winner in Sidhu (and perhaps also the ageing Saina) for Tokyo.

Archery's potential needs to be nurtured with the help of a team Psychologist above all, and the techniques used by Bindra in 2008 for instance (yoga and other forms of meditation).

Young talent needs to be found, nurtured and honed in boxing and wrestling.
Put Bindra in charge of finding the next Bindras in shooting.

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby Mugundan » Sat Oct 08, 2016 1:47 pm

Athletics will not escape a repeat of Rio if the attitude of the athletics federation persists. If the SAI changes its initial response to the failures (its DG indicated that it won't approved failed coaches including Yuriy Ogorodnik, the man at the centre of the 2011 doping scandal who was recalled despite all the media criticism), nothing may save Indian athletics. The attitude seems to be "spinach alone will get us anywhere; let us get more experts in utilizing the spinach that is freely available in our country"
http://www.thehindu.com/sport/other-spo ... 199342.ece

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Re: Pre-mortem on the Tokyo Olympics disaster

Postby sameerph » Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:37 am

This is a nice article on young guns who can be expected to shine in Tokyo-

Five Young Prodigies Who We Should All Root for in Tokyo 2020

I expect Neeraj Chopra and Siril Verma to shine in 3-4 years time.

P.S. probably not the right thread to post this as the title suggests a disaster. But, it is too early to start a thread for Olympics proper. So, let us continue here till then for any news related to Tokyo.


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