Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

As we had often come back to discussing economic benefits/impact of sports I thought it was about time for an economic discussion forum.
User avatar
PKBasu
Member
Member
Posts: 29314
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2003 6:04 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Singapore

Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby PKBasu » Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:33 pm

It is now a foregone conclusion that Narendra Modi will become our Prime Minister on May 17th.

Broadly, I think this is excellent news. Modi has fought a good campaign, based on a clear program of economic liberalization -- advocating a "smaller, but more effective, government", a pithy and clear goal. He has delivered an average of 10%+ annual real GDP growth over the last 13 years in Gujarat (no leader other than Deng Xiaoping can make such a claim for longevity of spectacular economic growth). Muslims in Gujarat have seen their lives improve sharply too -- and I know of one senior Muslim journalist who has been frequently invited back to Gujarat (along with other Muslim intellectuals) to help with outreach to Muslim youth (for literacy and reading programs).

Modi will have more executive experience than any other prime minister before him. And the BJP responded to overwhelming demands from the party membership to replace Advani with Modi -- a profoundly democratic process, that is now paying off for the party. Today, the BJP announced an alliance for Tamil Nadu (with the MDMK, PMK, DMDK, IJK and one other party -- so a Modi-Vaiko-Vijayakanth-Ramadoss alliance) that will probably wipe out the Congress and DMK in this election (especially if Alagiri supports the BJP alliance too).

sameerph
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 20951
Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 4:26 pm
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5
Location: MUMBAI

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby sameerph » Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:57 pm

I hope BJP with current NDA ( & probably some of the less troublesome potential allies like Telgu Desam, Biju Jantata Dal etc.) cross the mark of 273. If they have to depend on the likes of Jayalalita ( It does not like BJP alliance is that strong in Tamal Nadu based on opinion pools) or Mamata Banarjee ( who it seems will get majority of the seets in WB), then the coalition will be unstable.

User avatar
PKBasu
Member
Member
Posts: 29314
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2003 6:04 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Singapore

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby PKBasu » Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:18 pm

Before today's alliance in Tamil Nadu, I was estimating 210 seats for the BJP and 247 for the NDA -- which means any one of Jayalalitha, Mamata or Mayawati will be needed to put them over 272. I think the 5-party alliance in TN will now get close to 10 seats (versus 4 with the earlier 3-party alliance). Andhra Pradesh is the other key: so far, Congress and TRS do not have an alliance. If that continues (or if TRS works out a quiet alliance with BJP), then I think NDA will be very close 272. Also, it looks as if there is a BJP wave in Karnataka, where JD(S) and Congress have not worked out an alliance -- and in a 3-way fight (with Yedyurappa and Sriramulu back in the fold), BJP looks strong there.

User avatar
kujo
Authors
Authors
Posts: 2943
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby kujo » Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:35 pm

PKBasu wrote:He has delivered an average of 10%+ annual real GDP growth over the last 13 years in Gujarat (no leader other than Deng Xiaoping can make such a claim for longevity of spectacular economic growth).


I believe all the 4 southern states have done equally well in that period, if not better. Even, West Bengal is pretty decent.

Specifically, consider the 8 year time frame of 2004-05 to 2011-12 and the GDP statistics shown here:
http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload/St ... 4mar12.pdf

Gujarat's claim is only that, they have done better than national average. But in relation to 5 states mentioned above, they are average....

sameerph
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 20951
Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 4:26 pm
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5
Location: MUMBAI

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby sameerph » Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:50 pm

PKBasu wrote:Before today's alliance in Tamil Nadu, I was estimating 210 seats for the BJP and 247 for the NDA -- which means any one of Jayalalitha, Mamata or Mayawati will be needed to put them over 272. I think the 5-party alliance in TN will now get close to 10 seats (versus 4 with the earlier 3-party alliance). Andhra Pradesh is the other key: so far, Congress and TRS do not have an alliance. If that continues (or if TRS works out a quiet alliance with BJP), then I think NDA will be very close 272. .


You mean Telangana , right. In Seemandhra , it seems YSR congress will hold the sway with some seats to TDP.
I guess one of TRS or YSR cong. can support BJP , not both due to inner contradictions.

User avatar
prashanthm
Member
Member
Posts: 4667
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2012 9:36 am
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5
Location: MA

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby prashanthm » Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:20 pm

sameerph wrote:I guess one of TRS or YSR cong. can support BJP , not both due to inner contradictions.
If YSRCP comes in, then TDP may not.. These are all exclusive combinations...

User avatar
PKBasu
Member
Member
Posts: 29314
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2003 6:04 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Singapore

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby PKBasu » Fri Mar 21, 2014 2:38 am

sameerph wrote:
PKBasu wrote:Before today's alliance in Tamil Nadu, I was estimating 210 seats for the BJP and 247 for the NDA -- which means any one of Jayalalitha, Mamata or Mayawati will be needed to put them over 272. I think the 5-party alliance in TN will now get close to 10 seats (versus 4 with the earlier 3-party alliance). Andhra Pradesh is the other key: so far, Congress and TRS do not have an alliance. If that continues (or if TRS works out a quiet alliance with BJP), then I think NDA will be very close 272. .


You mean Telangana , right. In Seemandhra , it seems YSR congress will hold the sway with some seats to TDP.
I guess one of TRS or YSR cong. can support BJP , not both due to inner contradictions.


Actually, Telangana will only come into existence formally in June. So, in this election it is still Andhra Pradesh. Of the 17 Telangana seats, I suspect that Hyderabad city will still lean towards either TDP or YSRC rather than TSR. Kiran Kumar Reddy has also launched a party of his own, so the fight in Seema-Andhra could be 4- or 5-cornered -- ideal for the BJP, especially if it can work out seat adjustments with TDP in Seemandhra and TRS in Telangana.

sameerph
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 20951
Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 4:26 pm
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5
Location: MUMBAI

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby sameerph » Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:30 am

BJP supported Telangana creation. So, I suppose it will be very difficult for it to get much support in Seemandhra. ( as will be the case for Congress, probably even more so.) . In that case Seemandhra seats will be spilt between YSRC, TDP & Kiran Reddy's party. TDP will be the most logical ally for BJP between these.

User avatar
prashanthm
Member
Member
Posts: 4667
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2012 9:36 am
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5
Location: MA

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby prashanthm » Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:24 pm

PKBasu wrote:Actually, Telangana will only come into existence formally in June. So, in this election it is still Andhra Pradesh. Of the 17 Telangana seats, I suspect that Hyderabad city will still lean towards either TDP or YSRC rather than TSR. Kiran Kumar Reddy has also launched a party of his own, so the fight in Seema-Andhra could be 4- or 5-cornered -- ideal for the BJP, especially if it can work out seat adjustments with TDP in Seemandhra and TRS in Telangana.


Then, why would BJP want to go with TRS... They could just go with TDP all the way in Telangana & Seemandhra...
I don't think there is anything left for TDP in the Telangana region, at least for this election... It's going to be TRS all the way, not that I like it...

User avatar
prasen9
Member
Member
Posts: 11205
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 8:49 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: State College, PA
Contact:

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby prasen9 » Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:12 pm

PKBasu wrote:Muslims in Gujarat have seen their lives improve sharply too --
Does this include those Muslims who are dead too?

User avatar
prasen9
Member
Member
Posts: 11205
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 8:49 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: State College, PA
Contact:

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby prasen9 » Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:21 pm

I would love to have Modi teach PR and communication courses at our university. The man is brilliant at making myths into spouted facts. Gujaratis have always been industrious. Compared to Maharashtra, the Gujarat numbers are about the same. Yet, Modi is brilliant. See this one: Modi economic growth myth There are several more articles that busts the myth. I hope enablers of mass murders are not rewarded, however much we may be desperate for economic growth.

Why did Modi reward Kodnani? At best, this portrays the man as clueless. At worst, he does not care about clean governance. Ditto for Bokhiria.

User avatar
kujo
Authors
Authors
Posts: 2943
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby kujo » Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:22 pm

Here are the facts / stats/ numbers to dispel this myth:
http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload/St ... 4mar12.pdf

User avatar
PKBasu
Member
Member
Posts: 29314
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2003 6:04 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Singapore

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby PKBasu » Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:51 pm

The attempts to bust the "myth" of Modi's economic performance generally fall flat. Gujarat under-performed the rest of India in the 10 years before Modi became CM of Gujarat -- and has strongly out-performed India in the past 13 years, as shown here in The Economist's recent article (look at the chart in the report):
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/2159 ... th-matters

No leader in history has delivered more than 10% average annual real GDP growth over a 13-year period -- apart from Deng Xiaoping and Park Chung-Hee.

Kujo's data is based on nominal GDP growth over a shorter period. The important thing is to look at the full period of 13 years, and there is little doubt that Modi's performance has been spectacular. India's electorate is responding to that performance.

On prasen9's points: of course, there is a huge blot in Modi's record: 2002. Maya Kondnani (a former minister in Modi's cabinet), however, is in jail -- as are one or two other ministers and senior officials involved in the riots of 2002. NOBODY ever went to jail for the 1984 Sikh riots, which were instigated by the Congress (almost in front of my eyes), and which were instigated by Rajiv Gandhi's well-known remark, "When a big tree falls, the earth shakes". Similarly, NOBODY went to jail for the grotesque atrocity that caused the 2002 riots -- the brutal torching of a whole bogey containing 59 Hindu pilgrims at Godhra station. (In fact, there was a truly ludicrous attempt by Lalu Yadav and a left-wing Bengali judge to try and blame the victims for that gruesome episode).

It is worth noting that Gujarat has been especially prone to communal riots. During the Congress regimes of the previous 3 decades, communal riots killed between 200 and 500 people every year. There have been no communal riots in Gujarat in the past 11 years, which is a remarkable improvement on the past -- which is one reason why M.J. Akbar (who spent most of his life attacking the RSS and Sangh Parivar) is a big supporter of Modi now. Modi's campaign for Prime Minister has also been remarkable for being totally devoid of any communal bating. Instead, at the Patna rally where bombs went off (killing several people), Modi exhorted the crowd to "unite to defeat such forces; Muslims and Hindus can either foolishly turn on each other and keep fighting, or we can all unite to deal with the challenges of poverty that are the common enemy of both Muslims and Hindus".

User avatar
Atithee
Member
Member
Posts: 3085
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:14 pm

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby Atithee » Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:28 pm

I just returned from a three week trip to India (Uttarakhand, to be specfic). There is an election frenzy at least in the news channels although the reporting and the standards leave much desired. If it were not for the AAP, Modi's ascension was there for taking. AAP's entry into the elections has dampened the Modi wave a bit. I still think that Modi will be India's next PM.

As for Modi, all things considered, we simply need to give Modi a chance to see what can he deliver. Reminding Prasen of his own advise -- if we do the same things the same way over and over, we will get the same results (unacceptable, in the current context).

Sin Hombre
Member
Member
Posts: 2206
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2010 6:59 pm
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5
Location: Chicago

Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby Sin Hombre » Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:57 am

kujo wrote:Here are the facts / stats/ numbers to dispel this myth:
http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload/St ... 4mar12.pdf


Why are we looking at GDP growth at current prices?

India is not growing at 16% as your link may suggest.


As for Modi, he is not a great choice. But then, I would rather have a single party get close to majority and not be dependent on casteist/linguistic monstrosities which are the regional parties. That leaves Congress and BJP. Bit of a no-brainer that Rahul Gandhi would ensure another 5 years of decay.

Nationally, with hindsight, the best prime ministers in the last 30 years have been Vajpayee and the much-maligned and made fun of Rao. Modi is like neither of them and will be a risk.


Return to “Economic and General Development”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest