Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

As we had often come back to discussing economic benefits/impact of sports I thought it was about time for an economic discussion forum.
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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby prasen9 » Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:42 am

Omkara wrote:Surprisingly BJP won more votes and higher vote share since 2013. 15% of population that voted to the congress moved towards aap while another 9% who voted for others last time voted for aap. This lead to vote share of aap going up from 30% to 54% while bjp moved from 31% to 32%. Congress down from 25% to 10 %, others down from 14% to 4%.

So for bjp 31% votes meant 28 seats while 32% votes meant 3 seats.
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This may mean a lot of things. However, my naiive analysis is as follows. The voter-base is polarized now. Non-bjp vs. bjp. In the previous election, the non-bjp votes were split. Because of the hung parliament the last time, people voted more strategically this time. Most of the non-bjp/pro-aap votes got pooled and people did not waste it on the Congress or other parties. It was a straight AAP-BJP comparison. Happens that AAP had the majority in over 90% of the constituencies.

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby Omkara » Thu Feb 12, 2015 9:52 am

prasen9 wrote:
Omkara wrote:Surprisingly BJP won more votes and higher vote share since 2013. 15% of population that voted to the congress moved towards aap while another 9% who voted for others last time voted for aap. This lead to vote share of aap going up from 30% to 54% while bjp moved from 31% to 32%. Congress down from 25% to 10 %, others down from 14% to 4%.

So for bjp 31% votes meant 28 seats while 32% votes meant 3 seats.
Ain't we awesome
This may mean a lot of things. However, my naiive analysis is as follows. The voter-base is polarized now. Non-bjp vs. bjp. In the previous election, the non-bjp votes were split. Because of the hung parliament the last time, people voted more strategically this time. Most of the non-bjp/pro-aap votes got pooled and people did not waste it on the Congress or other parties. It was a straight AAP-BJP comparison. Happens that AAP had the majority in over 90% of the constituencies.


It has happened for the first. Most other places 30-32% vote share suggests around 50% seats. Hence, Delhi elections will have long term implications even though its voter population forms small part of the country. For Bihar, JD is desperately trying to unite but failing. Some say the current Bihar CM has been spooked by BJP to go against JD(U). If they support him then he will remain the CM along with rebel JD(U) guys and outside BJP support

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby sameerph » Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:25 am

Omkara wrote:It has happened for the first. Most other places 30-32% vote share suggests around 50% seats.


That happens usually where there are much-cornered contests with the other 2-3 contestants getting 20-25% vote share. In a straight contest and the one where there is a homogeneous vote pattern across all the constituencies, 30-32% is not good enough for too many seats. It was clear in this election that Congress votes were up for grabs as it has become irrelevant. The fact that AAP was able to get all of those and others votes and BJP could not get anything out of that was it's failure. BJP's vote share was also about 12-13% lower compared to the vote share it got in Delhi in Loksabha elections and it lost all of those votes to AAP.

So, it was certainly a setback to Modi and Amit Shah who had not lost a election so far. But, it still too small a election to say that this a referendum on the Modi govt. Some part of losses may be due to perception of Modi not doing as well as expected but there are variety of other reasons including freebies announced by AAP. Lets see how AAP is able to fulfill all the promises it made.

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby Sin Hombre » Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:33 pm

I am with sameer here in not drawing too many conclusions from a Delhi state elections; a 3rd election for Delhi in 14 months.

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby prasen9 » Wed May 20, 2015 10:45 am

I do not expect anything better from these morons. Death by a thousand cuts No acche din

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby Omkara » Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:54 pm

Poor loss today. Hope there is some course correction

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby ankit1407 » Sun Nov 08, 2015 4:24 pm

This was on the cards, if they don't do what they were voted for 2017 UP and eventually 2019 LS will be gone too thou too early for 2019 specially...

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby sameerph » Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:55 am

True, if Delhi election was a minor setback , this was a major setback for Modi and co. Need to work hard and fast on delivering on promises. UP elections in 2017 is going to be the next big test.

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby PKBasu » Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:29 am

Bihar should be a lesson for the BJP: you cannot win state elections without a credible candidate for chief minister. The BJP had a readymade one in Sushil Kumar Modi -- who was an excellent Finance Minister there for 8 years -- but did not project him (or anyone else) as CM candidate. That was a big mistake, which opened the door to the "Bihari vs Bahari" narrative that Nitish played to perfection.

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby prasen9 » Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:41 am

Yes. Basically Modi's ego. He thought that he would swoop in and people would be spell-bound by his PR and vote for him. Being good in PR fools people once. But, if you don't deliver and people don't see a difference in their lives, they will start moving away ... That's applicable for all parties.

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby PKBasu » Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:52 am

Nonetheless, it is worth noting some of the following:
(a) every single government-run school in India now has a separate boys and girls' toilet (as of last week), a remarkable achievement that will go a long way toward educating every girl child in the country (the surest route to long-term well-being for individuals and families);
(b) almost every Indian (especially all rural residents) has a UID card (I have mine too: flew to Calcutta to get finger-printed and my irises recorded!);
(c) about 250 million households have acquired new bank accounts, and there will soon be no family in the country without one -- a massive form of financial emancipation that no previous government got anywhere near achieving:
(d) by the end of this year, every household will have health and life insurance;
(e) as this report shows http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/1d64846e ... z3rH8dCm6A (see the table towards the end), India is the world's largest recipient of FDI (foreign direct investment) this year. Among others, Foxconn (the key manufacturer of parts for Apple's products) is building 12 factories in India, which will become that company's preferred manufacturing base (gradually replacing China).

This is what economic transformation looks like, 18 months into Narendra Modi's term in office.

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby PKBasu » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:04 pm

The link in the previous post referred to FDI inflows into the manufacturing sector in Asia (with India as #1 --utterly remarkable, given that manufacturing growth was zero in the last three years of the UPA regime despite a global boom at the time; now India is receiving a flood of FDI at a time when the world economy is slowing sharply). Modi deserves almost 100% of the credit for bringing about this transformation. I was speaking to a Japanese fund manager (who works for one of the largest fund management companies in the US) and he could not stop singing the praises of Modi and the transformation he has wrought in business conditions in India.

Here is another report that shows India as the largest recipient of FDI (into all sectors) in the first half of 2015 (ahead of the US and China):
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/fdd0e3c2 ... z3rH8dCm6A

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby prasen9 » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:15 pm

I am so glad that Narendra Modi single-handedly laid all the bricks in all toilets in the schools of India. Of course, we had nothing before he came. All my neighbours and people in our ancestral village are throwing parties because the Indian government and the district government officials, etc. can snoop on them more effectively using the UIDs. But, again, nothing like that was there before Modi. He set it up single-handedly.

I am also very glad that Modi has made it so much easier for his business-friends to pollute with impunity. War on the environment Business can now pollute more easily and people all over the country now have to pay a cleanup cessTax the people (but not polluting businesses). If we tell Union Carbide and Dow that they can kill as many people as they want in India, and steal as much as they want, they will of course, invest in record numbers.

Of course, the people of New Delhi and Bihar are fools to not want any of these goodies. They should think like the big Japanese bankers and big business and help them achieve their goals. There is this theory of trickle-down-economics you know and it does not matter whether it works in practice or not.
Last edited by prasen9 on Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby prasen9 » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:31 pm

If we want to be serious, we can compare what this government did to improve the human condition in India with respect to what the previous government did. Listing things that were done by the previous government and completed by this government and giving them the credit for going through is sort of disingenuous. In 2012, the Supreme Court said that schools should have boys and girls toilets. Modi possibly did hurry up the pace. However, in 70% of the toilets in some states there is no water. We will see how effective this effort is in reality.

I think the health insurance initiative is a good one. I'm not so sure that spending on life insurance is the best way to spend the scarce government resources as I do not think that fertilizer subsidies are a good way to spend the money either. I would like to see more invested in education, especially girls' education as you said. Toilets are not the only reason that girls do not go to school.

Increased investment is good, but, this is coming at the cost of serious environmental degradation and with few basic protections for labor. Only in the long term, we will see the true impact of that.

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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Postby PKBasu » Thu Nov 12, 2015 1:02 pm

India is not #1 in the world at too many things -- as we at this sports forum know only too well.

At least India is #1 in the world for FDI inflows. NEVER has India been anywhere near the top-5 destinations for FDI in the world until this year -- leave alone #1 in the world. That is about as remarkable an achievement as imaginable.
The consequence will be several million jobs, with multiplier effects on local communities, including funds to clean up the environment that simply weren't there in the past.
The virulent critics are working frantically to bring down Modi. But Rajasthan is transforming, as Gujarat has already been transformed.
The person I referred to was not a "Japanese banker", by the way. A fund manager invests people's money and tries to get the best returns (quite possibly a small part of your retirement savings is being managed by his company); quite different from a banker of any sort. They are not easily convinced about the merits of investing in any country: I was trying to convince him that Indonesia and Vietnam are worthy places for investment, and he came back with a paean for Modi and India. What a change to have India mentioned as a paragon by a global investor!

To attribute the roll-out of toilets to all of India's schools -- not just boys toilets, but girls ones too -- to a Supreme Court judgement from 2012 is pretty rich. The Congress had 65 years to get something done on basic hygiene. It failed. Modi has delivered in 18 months.


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