Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

As we had often come back to discussing economic benefits/impact of sports I thought it was about time for an economic discussion forum.
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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:18 pm

You have a point, Sandeep.

Meanwhile, they are work late into the night in Vienna, and nothing much has hit the Indian press, except that they wre working .. The communist newspaper's Varadarajan glossed over the China "about-turn" but...

The Indian Express has written the truth!

Sleepless in Vienna: China threatens to leave for home, US works into the night

China, which until yesterday was in the background trying to play arbitrator of sorts by suggesting to hold another meeting, seemed to suddenly reveal its hand in the most unexpected manner ...... This happened even as US was in consultations with holdout countries like Austria, Ireland and New Zealand on the one hand and India on the other, to work out a resolution.


There you go. Didn't I tell you they would not easily let this one go through?

I wasn't worried about the Austrias and Irelands and New Zealands, but I am not sure if this thing would happen if China did not want it to happen .. They probably wouldn't want it, and so I am assuming the deal to be DEAD, for now.

Hoping for a pleasant surprise though. On the other hand, I hope Indian guys wouldn't be blindsided by some language pushed by China in the last minute that comes back to haunt us later, in their hurry to get this done right now today. Just get back home, guys and forget it if so... And we are not even in the discussion room, and it is only USA that is doing all the heavy-lifting for us.

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:32 pm

Meanwhile, all of you MUST read Op-ed column in the Daily Pioneer.

A deal India can live with

I could not have written my exact feelings more clearly and succinctly as Ashok Malik writes. Absolutely flawless analysis, in my view.

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:55 am

well, well ... They worked till 2 am saturday morning at Vienna and then decided to extend their meeting to later saturday .. I guess it is good news that they didn't all go home ..

It seems Bush had to personally call China .. That tells you who exactly is standing in our way.

NDTV news, 6 am saturday sep 6

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby kujo » Sat Sep 06, 2008 3:49 am

If you believe the answer is 'yes', why even pretend India has great power ambitions? Meanwhile, the rest of us wait for the Viennese waltz to end.


Ahh. the viennese waltz! It is such a lovely dance. I don't want it to end now.... Go on. show me the true nature (skills) of China!

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:35 pm

The news wire reports are that the NSG has granted the waiver to India. So, that is good news. Looks like the US did pull her weight in the end, and China decided not to be the last obstruction after sulking yesterday.

I will delay opening champaign bottles till I hear of any troubling language China managed to get squeezed in ....

Awaiting further info. But anyway, our 34 year nuclear isolation is OVER.

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Sat Sep 06, 2008 2:45 pm

It took all of three hours for Washington Post to publish this article

Risking Armageddon for Cold, Hard Cash

Ridiculous crap. Written by, who else, the Arundhathi Roy equivalent among Indian-Americans, Mira Kamdar. I feel ashamed of the Indian community where I live, in Los Angeles, for having produced a clueless idealist like her - just like I feel ashamed of Arundhathi Roy's ancestral connections to my home state Kerala. If you didn't know of Mira Kamdar, she is an award-winning writer and the daughter of a 1960s Indian immigrant engineer who worked in the Appollo Mission.

Can I have you take a vacation with Arundhati Roy to the moon in an appollo, Ms.Kamdar?

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Sat Sep 06, 2008 2:52 pm

One more thing if any of you have a comment (but lately, it looks like only I care about this topic!)...

Having said all the supportive things about the nuclear deal, I do have a question. I could understand why Manmohan Singh, whom I consider a patriot, to have decided that this was best and that the risk was worth it for India. Can comebody tell me why Sonia Gandhi agreed to take all this political risk for the Congress party? Just pure financial angles from whoever in India with her making money off this, or is there anything more sinister behind it (of the Italian variety)? Lord knows that I do not trust that foreign-born woman even one blasted bit! Through all my support, this is one thing that has just constantly bothered me.

If it was anybody but Manmohan Singh pushing all this, I would not be anywhere near as supportive as I have been in this thread.

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby Atithee » Sat Sep 06, 2008 3:02 pm

The problem with such authors is that they are under an illusion that they are good journalists/fellows of their respective institutions. They conveniently forget that the only reason anyone is willing to publish their biased views is because they are of Indian origin. Of course, it is fashionable to chastise India for such authors. How many times have you seen a similar piece penned by an Indian origin author in support of the Indian view? I have seen very few, if any.

While I may agree with some of the points she raised, she seems to be more concerned about what China and Pakistan would think than what happens to India. A mere 8% of energy -- excuse me, 8% for a population of 1 billion + ? That's a lot. Whether even this would happen is anyone's guess, but let's stop belittling the purported positives of this deal.

It never ceases to amaze me the all the sanctions apply only to aspiring nations while the declared nuclear states are pretty much free to do whatever they want while dictating the rest of the aspirants.

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby kujo » Sat Sep 06, 2008 4:19 pm

jayakris wrote:Just pure financial angles from whoever in India with her making money off this, or is there anything more sinister behind it (of the Italian variety)? Lord knows that I do not trust that foreign-born woman even one blasted bit! Through all my support, this is one thing that has just constantly bothered me.

Apart from the money angle, Rahul did convey his true feelings (which were positive, well thought out, etc) about the nuclear deal with US - as you yourself pointed out from some video clippings of Rahul speaking in the Parliament....
Don't count out the influence of Rajiv's children on Sonia's decision making. From what I perceive, she is grooming him for the next PM from Congress party.

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Sat Sep 06, 2008 4:44 pm

I knew that .. But somehow, I just cannot trust anybody in that family, including the children. On the other hand, I came to have a lot more respect for Rajiv, much later after his passing, as a reasonably honest guy. Yes, I was impressed by Rahul's speech in the parliament - but speaking is something that they were all good at - from Nehru's time. Honesty is another thing altogether though. Probably it is my deep hatred of Indira Gandhi as the one who destroyed our country, that drives the feeling - and perhaps even in her case, paranoia was what caused her to take one decision after another that kept India from improving, rather than utter selfishness and dishonesty.

I hope you are right, but I am always a sceptic about anything the family does, and anything the congress party does.... That is just me. On this one matter of the nuclear deal, I finally am with the party, for thye very first time in my life. It feels weird. Well, I was with PVNR on opening the economy, but that I knew was out of having no choice at all, and not out of PVNR really wanting to do it.

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:19 pm

OK, here comes the pound of flesh that China exctracted from the US late night Friday! -

NSG should address aspirations of others too: China

"It is also China's hope that the NSG would equally address the aspirations of all parties for the peaceful use of nuclear power while adhering to the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism," he said, apparently alluding to Pakistan's repeated attempts to get a civil nuclear deal with the United States, similar to the Indo-US agreement.


I was expecting that they would negotiate out something for their buddies in Islamabad .. And that is why they stood in the way in the end. They knew they probably couldn't stop the waiver, and probably knows that it really does not change anything as far as their power equation with India is concerned (they know what nukes we have, that we won't stop our nuke program, and that they will always have more nukes and missiles than us!) ... So, getting something organized for Pakistan soon, is what they want. Count on them standing in the way of India joining the NSG till pakistan-specific agreements are done (even though they are the newest member in NSG, only from 2004) ...

Meanwhile the stupid Times of India chose to publish this drivel from a Beijing Thinktank that China did us a big favor - ARE YOU FRIGGIN KIDDING ME ????

NSG decision to impact border talks with China

China's vote played a crucial role in helping India win the approval of the 45-nation NSG because several of its members looked at Beijing for advise on how to deal with this situation, sources in Beijing said


Man, what kind of infuriating crap is this? ... The correspondent, Saibal dasgupta, somebody who has made a living out of just forwarding the Beijing view constantly (he is a bengali communist with TOI, I suspect!), is at it once again .. TOI should be ashamed for publishing it.

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby prasen9 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:29 pm

This guy should be ashamed to call himself a journalist. What does he expect some unnamed sources in Beijing to say? That this happened despite their obstruction? He should call himself a stenographer. The media has a responsibility to vet things and find out the truth and not just write down what the establishment told them. The US media were stenographers when Bush sold the war and this guy is no better! I hope people who know their work just slap them when they introduce themselves as journalists. They are a shame to the honest and commendable profession of journalism.

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Sun Sep 07, 2008 4:10 pm

Well, the Times of India does make some amends to their silly earlier article from Beijing, with some plain speaking in this article. Thank you TOI! -
Beijing 'disappoints' Delhi

The Indian Express has some more details on this -

Delhi sent demarche to Beijing, Bush called Hu

Last night, China had delivered a surprise by threatening to leave, objecting to the manner in which US was “forcing” a consensus. Clearly, Beijing decided to make its dissent open and, very quickly, countermeasures were put in place. Closely coordinating with the US, New Delhi issued a strong demarche to China in Beijing late last night. The same was conveyed to the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi this morning, which was gearing up for Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi’s visit starting tomorrow. Sources said South Block worked through the night passing on the tough message to Beijing that its position was contrary to assurances it had given at the political level that it wouldn’t come in the way of an NSG consensus for India.

Washington simultaneously stepped up gears and US President George W. Bush contacted his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao asking him not to block the waiver. Sources said “everyone in the US government below the President” leaned on someone in the Chinese government in a closely coordinated effort. In short, the US “pulled out all stops,” including reminding the Chinese of the evidence Washington had of its past proliferation activities, particularly in Pakistan.


Ataboy Bush! .. God bless you Manmohanji! .. It feels great that India was not really sitting around and hopimg for China to not trouble us, but we finally did stand up to the soul-less country and directly told them that we won't silently accept all their manipulations as "our bad fate" for ever.

.. and the poor Chinese foreign minister comes to Delhi now -
Pranab to host dinner for Chinese foreign minister

We will have a Kathak dance and the whole works for him ... I love it! .. This is how we should behave. Like big boys. Pull out the demarches (with proper understanding of help from other big boys like the US), to show tham that we are not pushovers anymore, and then get the Chinese to enjoy some nice Kathak!!

We should not over-react, and should continue very friendly relations with China. Just let them know that, when push comes to shove, we are no longer an isolated little baby crying "mommy" to the world who wouldn't care less.

Also, on the NSG waiver itself, the IE says,

While there were dogged efforts to include a provision that would cease cooperation with India in case it detonates a nuclear device, New Delhi stood firm and Washington did not press further. Both India and the US maintained that Paragraph 16 of the NSG guidelines that provide for NSG consultation in such circumstances — where NSG could by consensus suspend further trade — was sufficient. This rule, incidentally, also applies to all countries of the NSG .... While the final decision is still to be released, sources confirmed to The Sunday Express that there is no mention of the “testing” word in the draft.


The fact that, as far as NSG and nuke tests are concerned, we have not agreed to anything more than what all NSG countries, including the nuclear powers, have agreed to [except that the 5 nuclear powers have a sum total of only 3 or 4 reactors unde proper IAEA safeguards while we will have several]. Of course, bilateral fuel purchase agreements with any country may have more stringent conditions too.

Also, there are multiple reports that the "unanimous consent" was passed with no clapping, nothing .. Just pin-drop silence in the NSG meeting hall (one diplomat said he had never witnessed something like that for a unanimous agreement!). That shows you that the US completely forced everybody to agree and this body that came into existence purely because of India 34 years back, could only stay silent in face of the stark reality that India is not going anywhere and that they cannot keep away from us anymore.

India has just finally turned a corner, folks! .. It is up to us not to mess it up any more.

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby gbelday » Sun Sep 07, 2008 4:53 pm

The question also is whether it is going to be approved by the Congress during Bush's time. I don't think it is that big a deal as far as when it gets approved but it would be good to wrap it up as soon as possible!!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Representative Edward J. Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat and a vocal opponent of the deal, said in a statement on Saturday that with only a few weeks left in the Congressional session, “It is highly questionable whether such a complex and controversial agreement can be thoroughly examined before the House and Senate adjourn for the elections.”

Atomic Club Votes to End Restrictions on India
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/world ... gewanted=2

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby PKBasu » Sun Sep 07, 2008 4:56 pm

The NSG waiver is a huge feather in the cap of Dr. Manmohan Singh, who will go down in history both as the man who engineered the higher growth path of the Indian economy and then fundamentally altered our geostrategic prospects by getting this deal done. Remarkable achievement in Vienna yesterday. The NSG was established specifically to thwart India, and now it has finally allowed India into the hallowed group of 6 countries with a legitimate nuclear programme (albeit with 5 still having marginally greater rights -- and fewer obligations -- than the sixth). Frankly we do not need to really test nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future (unless some totally different technology emerges in China, or elsewhere).

I was actually asked to comment on this for Zee Business late on Friday night (or was it Saturday night? it's a bit of a blurr) within minutes of it being approved. I did a quick check on the internet before saying on air pretty much what I wrote above. They wanted to know if there were any immediate gains for the economy; of course not, but over the medium-term, it could be very significant toward fundamentally improving our energy environment (and the Reliance and Cairn gas/oil finds -- which are scheduled to come on stream over the next 6 months -- will also greatly improve our situation; within the next 2-3 years, we will go from importing 70% of our oil needs to importing only about 45-50% of it).

Congressman Ed Markey is one of the non-proliferation ayatollahs who has led the opposition to the deal all the way. He is hopelessly isolated though. I think the deal will be approved by the US Congress in the next couple of months.


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