Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

As we had often come back to discussing economic benefits/impact of sports I thought it was about time for an economic discussion forum.
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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby prasen9 » Sun Nov 04, 2007 3:27 pm

A very interesting article by B. Raman:

http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/nov/04raman.htm

Of particular interest is his comments:

We have no options in Pakistan itself because we have no leverage there just as we have no leverage in any part of the world. The least that our government should do is to build effective fire-walls to prevent this fire from spreading to India. The government's present policy of courting the US indiscriminately would come in the way of such firewalls.


This evaluation is largely true.  One should step back and ask why we do not have any real allies or leverage.  We used to have an ally in NWFP in Frontier Gandhi.  Once the world evolves, so should India's diplomatic strategies.  In general, it is good economic strategy to align with the US.  However, given the general disillusionment with the US and its disastrous diplomatic policies, India cannot put much hope to achieving any diplomatic goals via US intervention.  In that respect, we should really think before taking actions based on economic goals only.  The matter is complex; neither do I pretend to understand it fully, nor do I have immediate prescriptions on fixing the issues.  However, the eastward movement of the Taliban should concern everybody.  I doubt our government has very good strategies planned to deal with a Talibanised Pakistan, which seems more like a reality everyday.  I may be pessimistic, but such worst case planning should be done.  I hope there are some "firewalls" and contingency plans that we, the public, do not know of.

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Mon Sep 01, 2008 2:59 pm

How come we have not had much discussion here on this thread we started over 2.5 years back, as the nuclear deal has proceeded much further than many expected here initially?

I guess many of you have reduced their initial opposition now? ... Looks like the public opinion in India (including from many of the "experts" and columnists) have also changed quite a bit over the last few months, as people started figuring out what the deal is about.

Anyway, here comes a little bit out of Beijing, finally -

China: People's Daily questions Indo-US N-deal

What took these guys this long to say something? China has been awfully quiet and disturbingly so, for my comfort, all along. I never expected them to make this easy for India, but they have not been putting roadblocks so far - which was making me worry more and more. So, what are they planning now?

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby PKBasu » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:28 pm

Communist China was always going to kill the deal. As long as others do it for them (at the moment, the nay-sayers in the NSG are led by New Zealand, Norway, etc.), there is no need for China to show its hand. But they will do everything necessary to kill it. The NSG was formed in order to stop India's nuclear program, and I knew it would be an insurmountable hurdle. Had the Bush administration been in slightly better shape, they might have credibly been able to lead a global campaign to persuade the Kiwis, Norwegians, etc. But now they are distracted with absurd issues like Georgia (a non-country of 4 million, whose most famous product is Stalin, led now by an impetuous young president, whose multi-lingual abilities have led him into increasingly delusional actions). In these circumstances, China is free to kill the deal once and for all. If anybody hasn't yet noticed, China has been surrounding us for the past 50 years -- with nuclear weapons in Tibet, listening posts in the Coco Islands, a port in Baluchistan's Gwadar (for nearly exclusive use by China), a Maoist prime minister in Nepal, a pro-China military (and Jamaate-Islami party) in Bangladesh. Their enemy #1 is always India, but our stupid politicians continue trying to appease and kowtow to communist China.

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:37 pm

Bingo! .. Cha-Ching! .. Spot on, PKB, as usual.

I knew that China was just sitting there to let somebody else kill the deal, but are probably beginning to worry that it just might go through, and decided that they had to start making a slight move finally.

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby kujo » Tue Sep 02, 2008 5:13 am

PKBasu wrote: If anybody hasn't yet noticed, China has been surrounding us for the past 50 years -- with nuclear weapons in Tibet, listening posts in the Coco Islands, a port in Baluchistan's Gwadar (for nearly exclusive use by China), a Maoist prime minister in Nepal, a pro-China military (and Jamaate-Islami party) in Bangladesh. Their enemy #1 is always India, but our stupid politicians continue trying to appease and kowtow to communist China.


Heard of every one of them except the Baluchistan part. With the railway line to Tibet, any weapons (including nuclear) at an altitude of 4500 metres is easy enough to do.
It occupies an area of around 1,000 by 2,500 kilometers, and has an average elevation of over 4,500 meters. Sometimes called "the roof of the world," it is the highest and biggest plateau, with an area of 2.5 million square kilometers (about four times the size of Texas or France).


Coco islands and the Andaman islands, what to say there...
The Chinese Army is also building a base on Small Coco Island in the Alexandra Channel between the Indian Ocean and the Andaman Sea north of India's Andaman Islands. These two islands, which have been leased to China since 1994, are located at a crucial point in traffic routes between the Bay of Bengal and the Strait of Malacca. The Coco Islands are thus an ideal location for for monitoring Indian naval and missile launch facilities in Andaman and Nicobar Islands to the south and movements of the Indian Navy and other navies throughout the eastern Indian Ocean.


and a quick google search resulted in:
The significance of Gwadar is great to both Pakistan and China. Pakistan will be able to have a strategic depth southwest from its naval base in Karachi that has long been vulnerable to blockade by the Indian Navy. China is going to be the beneficiary of Gwadar's most accessible international trade routes to the Central Asian republics and Xinjiang. By extending its East-West Railway from the Chinese border city of Kashi to Peshawar in Pakistan's northwest, Beijing can receive cargo to and from Gwadar along the shortest route, from Karachi to Peshawar.


With only a Srilankan port/ access missing, China is able to surround India from all sides for sure...

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby Sandeep » Tue Sep 02, 2008 8:08 am

China, I don't think will oppose our nuclear deal with USA. They might have opposed the double standards set by USA but I don't think they will take any serious steps towards killing the deal. They need our support (if not now in future) as much as we need theirs. They will be the biggest losers if they oppose this deal and they know it. They will be completely isolated in Asian region and probably from all superpowers if they do this.

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby kujo » Tue Sep 02, 2008 8:41 am

Sandeep wrote: They need our support (if not now in future) as much as we need theirs. They will be the biggest losers if they oppose this deal and they know it. They will be completely isolated in Asian region and probably from all superpowers if they do this.

The mark of a super power (more or less) is to remain a super power despite any isolation in international matters - a-la- Russia for most of the cold war period (admittedly with some support from China ). I don't suppose China or any other super power is unduly worried about being isolated in the world stage - let alone the Asian region.

On the other hand, I have a long simmering notion that I want to put forward. India's politicians and administrators have a short term memory. They promptly forget (and probably forgive as well) any nation that has acted against Indian interests. Granted, the general public have very short memory in India with regards to bad public policies/ foreign policies / political parties and their corruption, etc. But to see the short sightedness of our foreign policies, in combination with a short term memory of what our policies (good and bad) really are, among our politicians and administrators is really disgusting.

It is like watching a ship zig-zaging its way across the ocean, India's foreign policies are generally in the right direction but instead of taking the straight path, we linger around, travel in orthogonal directions for a while, etc. I am being generous when I say, "generally in the right direction".
And to top it off, no one knows (neither India nor its allies and enemies) which course will the ship take next.

It is always easier to deal with a nation whose foreign policies are well thought out, executed and continue to be in the same direction(even if they are bad), despite domestic power being handed over from one administration to another (or from one person to another) as time passes. This is what I would term as a stable administration of a nation's foreign policy. If a course correction is indeed made (say by USA), they continue to remain on the same course even if administration changes.

As long as we continue to sway in the winds, as powers change at the centre every 5 years or so, we will continue to have an unstable foreign policy and other nations will continue to take advantage of that.

China will do what it pleases: 1. because it is a super power and doesn't care much for what others think or do. 2. because, w.r.to India, China (and everyone else) know that Indians will forget any slights/insults and move on as if nothing happened.

cheers
kujo
Last edited by kujo on Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby Sandeep » Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:22 am

The mark of a super power (more or less) is to remain a super power despite any isolation in international matters - a-la- Russia for most of the cold war period (admittedly with some support from China ). I don't suppose China or any other super power is unduly worried about being isolated in the world stage - let alone the Asian region.


I don't agree with you on this Kujo. May be the definition of superpower was that way earlier but now with rapid globalization no country in this world can afford to be isolated. Every country needs to gather some support to have any say in the world matters. I am not sure who will support China in this matter? If at all China has to fear then it has to be because of US influence and presence it will have on India after this nuclear deal. Anyways, in what way can they oppose us? How are they concerned eith this deal? I mean, neither they are supplying us with inputs to run nuclear plant nor the technology. Who will ask their opinion?

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby kujo » Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:47 am

fair enough ( your disagreement).

How are they concerned eith this deal? I mean, neither they are supplying us with inputs to run nuclear plant nor the technology. Who will ask their opinion?

Few things:
1. NSG http://www.nsg-online.org/ was created as a reaction to the Pokhran nuclear explosion by India.
The NSG was created following the explosion in 1974 of a nuclear device by a non-nuclear-weapon State, which demonstrated that nuclear technology transferred for peaceful purposes could be misused.

2. China is a participant and a signatory to NSG. Here are the remaining nations:
ARGENTINA, AUSTRALIA, AUSTRIA, BELARUS, BELGIUM, BRAZIL, BULGARIA, CANADA, CHINA, CROATIA, CYPRUS, CZECH REPUBLIC, DENMARK, ESTONIA, FINLAND, FRANCE, GERMANY, GREECE, HUNGARY, IRELAND, ITALY, JAPAN, KAZAKHSTAN, REPUBLIC OF KOREA, LATVIA, LITHUANIA, LUXEMBOURG, MALTA, NETHERLANDS, NEW ZEALAND, NORWAY, POLAND, PORTUGAL, ROMANIA, RUSSIAN FEDERATION, SLOVAKIA, SLOVENIA, SOUTH AFRICA, SPAIN, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND, TURKEY, UKRAINE, UNITED KINGDOM, and UNITED STATES

3. Finally: Second NSG meet is ‘last chance’ for nuclear deal
As members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group slowly digest the revised American proposal to grant India a waiver from the cartel’s export guidelines, Indian officials say this week’s scheduled NSG meeting will be decisive in sealing the fate of the nuclear deal with the United States one way or another.


NSG would be the right forum for China to reveal its position - either directly or through other members who might already be opposed to the deal. It doesn't have to supply the technology or fuel to us, by being a signatory to the NSG it can and will voice its opinion /concerns.

China is concerned because India is its' natural enemy. 1. for the most populous nation /race in the world, the next most populous nation/race is a natural enemy for resource consumption. 2. being neighbours (i.e. being geographically next to each other) within Asia only makes this worse. 3. finally, anything to hinder India's economic, military and/or scientific progress is good for China and its' people.

cheers
kujo

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby Sandeep » Tue Sep 02, 2008 1:01 pm

Ok OK, I somehow missed China's name in that list of countries. Thanks Kujo for that link

Hmm, now I can see why China can make a difference here. But I think it is in the best interest of China also to allow this nuclear deal to solve the energy crisis that the world will face if both these countries grow at the present pace.

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:19 pm

Meanwhile, somebody has managed to divert attention from China back to the "evil country" USA ...

Secret letters say US will pull out of deal if India tests - news

Embarrassing revelations on the nuclear deal - Brahma Chellaney's bulls*it ..

Did Bush mislead India on nuclear deal? - ToI news.

Now, can somebody tell me what exactly was new in these so-called revelations in the letters between Bush administration and the congress?? .. It seems like everybody is suddenly up in arms and going after the Congress and the PM in India.

Is there anything in these letters that is not clear from the 123 agreement (text) with the US and the IAEA agreement (text)

Did anybody in India think that the US (or any NSG country) could agree to continue supply of fuel if we conduct a nuclear test? .. REALLY?? .. What world are people living in? ..

We better stockpile fuel (and there are provisions that fully allow us to do that) and should not expect any supply if we do a test (unless the test by us is supported by enough NSG people for a completely different geoplitical climate that could develop a coupoe of decades later). If we were thinking that we could gladly conduct nuke tests and have the world accept it without complaining, that is idiotic beyond belief. Heck, why do we NEED tests anymore anyway? -- To crash into the nuclear nations club? Everybody knows we are a nuclear nation and we have enough nukes for somebody not to touch us with nukes anymore - and the only way we become even a "special entry" of sort in the nuke club is with what we are trying to do now.

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:30 pm

On smart-alek said this below one of the rediff articles, that gave me a chuckle -

But who cares, this business must happen. May be India signs NPT and CTBT and get full access to technology unconditionally. And when the security and sovereignty of India is facing terminally it is better to do further testing on enemy grounds directly.


This guy is on to something here. He makes more sense than the experts, who are all thinking too much with their egos and biases! :)

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:57 pm

An interesting article (but not an earth-shattering revelation) on the China-Pak nuke connection and what all China did, from 10 years before our first nuke test.

China tested nukes for Pakistan

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby jayakris » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:23 pm

I am really caught in the back-and-forth drama out there in Vienna. This is after the Thursday deliberations where China, "oh so innocently" tried to kill the deal (of course they know that if it does not come through today with no serious "conditions", even the Indian government may go down in flames)

Beijing says why the hurry as Vienna moves closer to a deal

Looks like the US has really been pulling their weight and batting for us. Yet another case, when push really comes to shove, it is the US that is more trustworthy than anybody else - at least if you are able to understand the commercial angles they perceive and can deal with it.

Unfortunately, I am very doubtful if India has much plans to deal with the US companies in the long-term (sorry, my country has not been all that grateful for anything good US has done for us - neither my country's politicians nor a majority of talking heads) .. I think it will be the quiet ones like France who will make it out like bandits in the coming decades for the hard work USA has done to open this up with India.

A waiver could come as early as in the next few hours, if the positive vibes from Thrusday evening are to be believed.

Meanwhile the latest from The Hindu's man Siddharth Varadarajan (who has been constantly writing with the hope that the deal would fail) gives a negative view of the prospects -

Nuclear deal at end of road

Check out the ridiculously biased and deliberately "spun" editorial linked from the bottom of that article .. It once again shows me that this particular newspaper just cannot have a position on anything that I agree with! - for once I am with a Congress government and The Hindu is against them :)

Jay

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Re: Indo-US nuclear deal and its implications

Postby Sandeep » Fri Sep 05, 2008 5:30 pm

Hindu has always been a staunch communist supporter. It is not much of a surprise that they are coming up with such articles


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