Football: Indian National Team news ...

General Discussion on Indian Football.

Moderator: Moderators

User avatar
Omkara
Member
Member
Posts: 3849
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:03 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Mumbai
Contact:

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby Omkara » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:30 pm

arjun2761 wrote:That is a nice win for India!

Interesting that the World soccer ELO ratings has India at #177 and Puerto Rico at #183, so it was a good predictor of this result.


Jay i was referring to this. It says we are ranked 183.

User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 22677
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA
Contact:

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby jayakris » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:34 pm

Oh ok. I missed Arjun's post somehow. Our 177 was probably not too bad but PR's 183 looked low on ELO. They aren't playing as well as a #114, like they were playing earlier in the year, but not as bad as a #183 either. Probably playing at a #140 level. The elements were all against them, and we would have beaten them by a 2-1 score or something in the normal case, but a 4-1 showed that we played quite well. We could have easily won 6-1, but for a couple of dead misses (but they had two shots off the post, and had an unbelievable goalie mistake too, that had to be from something like jet lag!)

User avatar
Omkara
Member
Member
Posts: 3849
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:03 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Mumbai
Contact:

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby Omkara » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:59 pm

Did india win points for this? After the points system was changed i read you win points only if you beat someone ranked higher.

User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 22677
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA
Contact:

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby jayakris » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:35 pm

No, you win points whether you beat somebody higher or lower. Anyway, they were ranked higher. We did win points. This was the highest ranked team we beat since Stephen Constantine in his last tenure as our head coach conjured up a win against Kuwait, if I'm not mistaken (read that somewhere, but I need to check my records).

Anyway, the points we won were not as good as the points we got for two wins against paltry Laos this year (because it had a multiplier of 2.5, as a FIFA qualifier; really, FIFA rankings are silly; but then again, it accounts for the fact that the best team does show up for those matches). But those two wins may in the end prove to be the most crucial points we won in the last 25 year history of our football, along with this win today. The 3 wins with a 11-2 combined score line, could not have come at a better time.

This was a risky but extremely clever/smart thing that Stephen Constantine did by playing this match and siting tight. He decided that we wouldn't play anything more this year. What that does is that all of the earlier wins (the ones at Kariavatton, Thiruvananthapuram last December at the SAFF cup) will move into the previous year average points (with weight 0.5), and this years matched-played divisor for yearly points average will go down and increase the value of the wins this year. So, even though we will only get 5 extra points from 200 to 205 in the next ranking, our ranking will move up in the coming months. As of January, without doing anything more, we will have this years points divided by only 5 (the matches we played since march - against Iran, Turkmenistan, 2 against Laos, and this match). So we will have a massive 203 points from this year, and 50 from last year, and some sundry points from 2014 and 2015 to have 275 points. In other words, we will move up to very near #125 by January. That would be our highest ranking in about 13 years, since the time Constantine was the coach the last time. How about that?

That is important also because we will have a chance to schedule some good matches against teams in the #75-#125 range for friendlies. Apparently Constantine has got AIFF to agree to adjust all schedules properly for next year to keep enough friendly dates available, so it *can be* up and up from here on, if all goes well.

Today's win was absolutely essential in this calculation, because without that we would be left with about 50 points less as of Jan 2017 and would only go up about 10 spots by January. As it stands, we will move up around 27 spots, and that is more crucial than it appears, for scheduling decent friendlies.

is everybody clear about all the confusing details now? ;) ;)

(By the way, I updated all my ranking points spreadsheets after a 2 year break, and can predict things quite well again, now!).

User avatar
arjun2761
Member
Member
Posts: 4961
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2005 2:26 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: US

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby arjun2761 » Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:37 pm

Puerto Rico is ranked 114 in the FIFA rankings, so we should gain FIFA ranking points with this win.

The ELO rankings are an unofficial ranking. During the Copa America, it seemed like a better predictor of current form than the FIFA official ranking.

User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 22677
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA
Contact:

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby jayakris » Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:03 pm

To add to what i said that we will go up to near #125 by early next year, we also have some pretty good leeway after that. The ranking will not drop if we do not do anything till next June actually. If we play a couple of internationals in March through May, we can lose them and not have it affect our ranking (as the averaging divisor will still be the minimum used 5 matches, and we would have only played 5 since this 2016 April onwards). Win two friendlies against some good team, and we will shoot up the ranking again (though we will start falling slowly from then on).

Just for instance, let us say that our next two matches are against Haiti (#101) in friendlies in February and April next year, and we win them. Our 2017 May and June rankings will be pretty much near #100 with 345 points, if you can believe that. Of course, beating a Haiti is not easy for us. Instead let us say that we beat a Madagaskar (129) and a Philippines (134) in the next two matches by April next year. Our May/June rankings next year will be #119 or so. That is the kind of ranking where you will indeed see some good country pick up AIFF's call to consider friendlies. People will like to play India if we have any decent ranking to give them some points, but if we are below 150, nobody can do anything. The points from matches increase the higher you are from 150, which gives the minimum point (same as all countries below 150)

So, we are in a great position right now to plan properly for a couple of friendlies early next year, win them and be in good shape to invite even better teams to play us. Keep your fingers crossed for us to use this crack in the door to get out of the below 150 cellar that we have had such trouble getting out of. I hope AIFF will keep listening to the head coach.

[By the way, I had suggested this trick of not playing, to raise the rankings and set up proper friendlies, at some point several years ago. Nobody read this forum to hear me! :) ]

Jay

User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 22677
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA
Contact:

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby jayakris » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:37 am

Oh, our useless press. Here is a PTI report, which is all some of the Indian newspapers like Times of India and Deccan Herald used today. Andheri is like some Godforsaken inaccessible village in Madhyapradesh one would think, seeing the difficulty by the newspapers to find a reporter to be at the National Football Team's first game in Mumbai in 61 years, of course. They would rather watch some cricketer get drunk with some Bollywood lowlife and report on it, I suppose. back to PTI, here:
This was India's fourth straight victory after the 1-2 loss to Turkmenistan in the World Cup qualifier in Kochi in March early this year. They had got past Laos 6-1 and 1-0 in the Asia Cup qualifiers in June and then drubbed Bhutan 3-0 last month in another international friendly. India have not beaten higher-ranked teams often in the past and had even lost 1-2 to Afghanistan in the SAFF Cup in Kochi in January.

How can you make three mistakes in 3 sentences like that? We did not drub Bhutan in an international friendly; it was just an unofficial practice match Constantine set up when our US tour didn't come through, to get the team ready for this match. And we did not lose to Afghanistan 1-2, but beat them 2-1 in the SAFF final in January. Finally, the SAFF cup was not at Kochi but at Kariavattom, near Thiruvananthapuram. What kind of nincompoops are hired by our press organizations to write the junk they write? I keep complaining, and it keeps getting worse.

Prashant
Member
Member
Posts: 2499
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 3:48 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Houston TX

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby Prashant » Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:47 am

For the best part of the last decade, we have been discussing here that India's coach needs to manipulate FIFA's idiotic ranking system to our advantage. Finally this seems to be coming true. Great job by Constantine. May as well work the system. If we get a few higher ranked opponents, maybe lightning strikes & we get one really big win, or a few draws at least...

User avatar
suresh
Member
Member
Posts: 5369
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 12:08 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Chennai, IN

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby suresh » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:03 am

I don't understand the need for a complicated ranking system that needs one to have a spreadsheet to figure out how things work.

User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 22677
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA
Contact:

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby jayakris » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:42 am

suresh wrote:I don't understand the need for a complicated ranking system that needs one to have a spreadsheet to figure out how things work.

Tell me about it. It would be fine if the complication would actually lead to some good ranking. It produces absolutely terrible rankings. The problem here is that they tried to set up a system that their smart-ass analysts thought was easy to explain, with a simple 4 factor formula like X=a*b*c*d. The problem is that nobody can find a, b, c, d anywhere unless you keep a spreadsheet of 4 years of data and keep updating it. Even then, one never knows the exact cut-off date of the matches counted in any ranking period. It is just a mess, and it's amazing that such a bull-crap ranking system has survived for some 15 or 20 years.

sameerph
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 20933
Joined: Mon Feb 28, 2005 4:26 pm
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5
Location: MUMBAI

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby sameerph » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:53 am

I think somewhat similar 4 year ranking system is prevalent in Hockey and in Davis cup tennis with most recent results having more weightage and then tapering down.

I have not really studied the football one to know if it is the same method.

User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 22677
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA
Contact:

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby jayakris » Mon Sep 05, 2016 6:35 am

Yes, sameer, hockey has a tapering scheme as well, but it is based on points at tournaments. Without one-to-one friendlies counting in the ranking, that system is quite easy to handle. The problem in football is that every month, the previous 48 months count, and FIFA wouldn't even tell exactly which date was the end date of the period they used, and where each match would fall, etc. On top of that the points depend on the ranking of the team that you played at the time you played it, and it is not easy to find the ranking of a team on any given date (becaue it would depend on when the ranks were released that month). The dates when they release the monthly rankings are rather arbitrary too (it seems). Then you have to figure out the averaging divisor (# of matches in any period) for each 12 month period. And that changes from month to month. All in all, a mess. Basically unless you have been keeping up a spreadsheet, it is very difficult to figure out anything. Then FIFA put up a point prognosticator etc at their website, but without much explanations and it is not very useful, as far as I can see. It is a mess.

User avatar
jaydeep
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 20812
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 8:59 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: India

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby jaydeep » Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:17 pm

Good interview by Indian coach Stephen Constantine after our win over Puerto Rico.

Sunil Chhetri is the team's talisman: Coach Stephen Constantine
To tone down the euphoria and give it a realistic touch, the Englishman said winning just one game against Puerto Rico wouldn't change India's FIFA rankings.
"I hate losing. So, whenever we win, it's okay for me. Apart from the result, we got to play. We need to play internationals to climb up the rankings. Winning one game won't help. Beating Puerto Rico, who are above us in the rankings, would help but we need more. That's what I'm trying to do since I came here.
"They are 38 places above us. Anyone above us is good enough. Was this game appropriate for us, absolutely! This gave us an opportunity to play against South American opposition which we do not normally do.
"This is why I wanted us to go to the US in the first place, to get games against sides like Guyana, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, these kind of teams, as we learn more playing against them as against smaller nations closer to us," he explained.

User avatar
PKBasu
Member
Member
Posts: 29298
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2003 6:04 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Singapore

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby PKBasu » Tue Sep 06, 2016 6:31 am

Constantine seems the right guy to take us step by step out of the ranking and quality hole we've fallen into. Surely, the ISL should also have some collateral benefits in terms of improving quality among our players, although the evidence thus far seems somewhat paltry.

User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 22677
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA
Contact:

Re: Football: Indian National Team news ...

Postby jayakris » Tue Sep 06, 2016 12:58 pm

Despite the jetlag and the loss, the Puerto Ricans apparently really enjoyed it in Mumbai and loved the crowd and everything. Some of them want to play in the Indian leagues now, it seems (I don't know how many of their players are good enough for that). Sporty Mumbai crowd makes return of international football to city memorable


Return to “General Football Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest